Should I transfer my Amex points to Avios for bonus now or wait?

I’ve been saving up my AMEX everyday rewards points to transfer to AVIOS.
I have 1.2 million AMEX points I’m hoping to transfer.

There is currently a promotion offering a 10% bonus on AVIOS if points are transferred from AMEX before June 30 2024.

However, last year there were two separate promotions:
June 2023: A 30% Transfer Bonus (This was before the AMEX partnership was formalised)

July 2024: A 20% Transfer Bonus (To announce the AMEX partnership)

I’m nervous about transferring such a huge amount of points and want to maximise the bonus obviously! It seems to me that the June '23 bonus was before the AMEX partnership and had limited partners and is unlikely to be repeated. The July '23 bonus seemed like a one off to announce the partnership. But both promotions were a higher return on bonus points.

Would you be holding for a potential higher yield promotion in coming months? Or transferring now?

My gut is saying transfer now…

Hi @rich2023

Can you specify where you’ve heard that AmEx has a 10% transfer bonus to Qatar Airways Privilege Club? I can find no information about it on either the AmEx or Qatar websites.

Are you sure the transfer bonus is for Australian AmEx?

AMEX sent an email out a few weeks ago.

It’s been further reported on here:

Hmm. Well, it must be a targeted offer because I didn’t receive the email. Nor, when I did a small transfer earlier this week, did I receive a 10% bonus.

(I also transferred some Commbank points and received the 20% bonus instantaneously).

I’d be interested to know who else received the email?

If, when you go to transfer the points, there’s a small highlighted “Bonus” circle next to the Qatar icon, then you can be sure that you’ll receive the bonus points.

As for your original question: If I were intending to make a redemption within the next six months or so, I would definitely be tempted by 10%. Otherwise I think I’d hold off.

Mystery solved! I’ve just found a thread on Australian Frequent Flyer about this offer, which contains the T&Cs.

The offer is only available to AmEx Australia cardholders who have never transferred to Qatar before.

Because I have made transfers in the past, I did not receive the offer.