AAdvantage versus Qantas Frequent Flyer - if starting at nothing as status-matched Qantas Gold member

I have Qantas gold (oneworld sapphire) that was given to me as a status match from my United status. I never really flew Qantas/One World that much but I have recently lost the United status and figured I would stick with Qantas from now on.
My question is though: Now that American has announce plans for flights from Sydney, which rewards program do you think is better to try and climb? AA or Qantas Frequent Flyer - starting at no status or miles with both.
I just wanted to know because I have upcoming flights with Qantas and JAL and wanted to know which program to stick to?
Oh and its probably wise to mention that I am an expat from the US (which is why I ask).

My take would be that if you do the majority of your travel to/within the US you are going to be better off with AAdvantage and trying to book AA codeshares on Qantas, or on the new AA service when it hits.

However, without putting all your plans (that’s even if they are known) into a spreadsheet and working it all out, it’s not possible to say for sure. It also depends if you are flying Economy or Business, as Qantas rewards Business travellers at a higher ratio than AA to Economy passengers.

I say this because:

  • The AA miles you’d earn are more valuable than Qantas Points
  • As an ex-pat, can you apply for US credit cards and take advantages of more AAdvantage bonuses?
  • You can keep using your Qantas Gold status during your travels until it expires, but credit all your flights to AA - so you’ll still get lounge access etc

If you don’t do much domestic travel on Qantas, you are probably better off with AA.
Then for cards, you could leverage Amex Membership Rewards and their transfer option to Starwood to get points from Credit Card spend over to AA.